Overview of the Budget Outlook
It is often said that our political system only responds to a crisis. If that turns out to be true, our children and grandchildren are in big trouble.
An unprecedented demographic transformation is taking hold against the backdrop of steadily rising health care costs and steadily falling national savings. This is a dangerous combination for the future health of the economy. It may seem that there is no immediate crisis, yet according to a broad bipartisan consensus current fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path.
The baby boomers' imminent retirement is ushering in a permanent shift to an older population--and a permanent rise in the cost of programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which already comprise 40 percent of the federal budget. There is no plan to pay for it all other than running up the national debt.
No one can say when a crisis will hit, but by the time it does the economy will likely be burdened with a debilitating amount of debt; leaving painful benefit cuts and steep tax increases as the only options. Doing nothing to avoid such a gut-wrenching outcome would be an act of fiscal and generational irresponsibility.
The basic facts are a matter of arithmetic, not ideology. Two factors stand out: demographics and health care costs.
Over the next 25 years, the number of Americans aged 65 and up is expected to nearly double, growing from 12 percent of the population to 20 percent. The working age population will grow by only 10 percent over this time, shrinking from 60 percent of the population to 55 percent. As a result, the ratio of workers paying into Social Security and Medicare relative to the number of beneficiaries will fall by roughly one-third.[1]
http://www.concordcoalition.org/events/fis...ake-up-call.htm