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EducateWorthington.org

The 912 Project - Glenn Beck

912 Group of Central Ohio

Please let me know if you'd like your link added

[We could say [Democrats] spend money like drunken sailors, but that would be unfair to drunken sailors. It would be unfair, because the sailors are spending their own money. --Ronald ReaganAl Gore didn't invent the internet, he invented global warmingThe welfare of humanity is always the alibi of tyrants - CamusThe person who advocates government planning of the economy always assumes that it is his plan that will be put into effect. --Hayek]

So...if this is true...can we get our $787 billion back?  If not, can we suspend government until they pay it back?


Biden: We Can't Recover All the Jobs Lost
Posted by Stephanie Condon

Vice President Joe Biden gave a stark assessment of the economy today, telling an audience of supporters, "there's no possibility to restore 8 million jobs lost in the Great Recession."

Appearing at a fundraiser with Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wisc.) in Milwaukee, the vice president remarked that by the time he and President Obama took office in 2008, the gross domestic product had shrunk and hundreds of thousands of jobs had been lost.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20008924-503544.html

The Scariest Unemployment Graph I've Seen Yet

The Scariest Unemployment Graph I've Seen Yet ??


The guy at the Atlantic who posted this graph writes:

It's hard to know for sure how to design public policy for historically unique crises precisely because they are historical orphans, without precedent to show us the right way from the wrong.


Historically unique???

Look at the legend for the x-axis -- it only goes back to 1965 ----    History extends further back then that!

The current level of the length of unemployment isn't unique in American history.

If the point is to merely display the data on length of unemployment since 1965 then the graph is fine.
If the point is to show that we are in an historically unique crisis the graph is pointless.

From the graph, it doesn't appear that stats were collected prior to 1967

1: The economy has changed a bit since 1929.
2: Do you agree that the actions by Harding where better than those of Hoover and Roosevelt?  

Cut spending by 50% = 18 month depression and roaring 20's
Roosevelt "stimulus" = 15 years of depression

1: The economy has changed a bit since 1929.
2: Do you agree that the actions by Harding where better than those of Hoover and Roosevelt? 

Is this a trick question?

The economy has changed since 1929. Harding died in 1923.

Economic data from the BLS go back only to 1929.
Roosevelt did pretty well.

GDP from 1933 when Roosevelt took office until 1940 grew at a rate of 62.8% or about 9.2% annually.
This latter number isn't quite accurate -- I'm just dividing the total rate by 7 years.

Source: http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/SelectTable.asp?Selected=N#S1

Table 1.1.3

Do you have any credible sources for data on the years prior to 1929.

Do you have something in mind that you think Harding did to get us out of the recession/depression of 192--21?
What is it? I don't know of anything he DID that brought about an end to the 1920-21 decline.

I can't point to anything comparable to the real policy changes that Roosevelt made. So, yes, whatever actions policy initiatives that Harding enacted were second rate compared to the Roosevelt initiatives.

Hold on a second -- maybe there is a credible source of pre-1929 economic data: The Historical Statistics of the United States.

http://books.google.com/books?id=6IhUAAAAMAAJ&ots=_zKdpv9GH8&dq=Historical%20Statistics%20of%20the%20United%20States&pg=PA224&ci=34,29,938,689&source=bookclip#v=onepage&q&f=false

Darned if I can find anything that could help you make your case.

See if you can find something.

I wish we could still edit our posts so I wouldn't have to do a new one.

Look for what the rates of economic growth in the 1920s  -- You won't find anything comparable to growth rates of the 30s under Roosevelt.

Unless you can show me something different I'll stick with the conventional wisdom that Roosevelt's policies were better than Harding's policies.

Today, we need more of those policies than ever.

Warren Harding and the Forgotten Depression of 1920

Oh no! We can't CUT spending.  No we need to feed the crazy animal.

Thanks very much for the link to the Woods' piece.

But this doesn't cut it.

Woods claims:

"Instead of “fiscal stimulus,” Harding cut the government’s budget nearly in half between 1920 and 1922. The rest of Harding’s approach was equally laissez-faire. Tax rates were slashed for all income groups. The national debt was reduced by one-third. The Federal Reserve’s activity, moreover, was hardly noticeable. As one economic historian puts it, “Despite the severity of the contraction, the Fed did not move to use its powers to turn the money supply around and fight the contraction.”2 By the late summer of 1921, signs of recovery were already visible. The following year, unemployment was back down to 6.7 percent and was only 2.4 percent by 1923."


Notice how bogus this looks. No facts, no sources, no dates given.

Exactly when did the tax rate cut take effect and when did the country start coming out of the depression?

What was the growth rate as the country emerged from the depression of 1920-21?

Notice that Woods doesn't tell us anything about any of this. None of what he says passes the smell test.
It stinks, therefore it probably is just a bunch of BS.

The data that Woods doesn't tell you about: You'll have to look it up on your own.

Here's what you need to look up:

1. When did the tax rates cut take effect?
2. When did the country emerge from the depression -- Woods says the late summer of 1921. I'll accept that -- when did the tax rates get cut.

I'll tell you -- it was in 1922 - it took effect the following year. Probably not responsible for the recovery then.

But I expect you to verify these claims and don't take my word for it.


About the fed's activity.

You probably know that in those days each Bank in the federal reserve system set their own interests rate independently of each other.

I'll show you where to find the information.
Go to page 440 of the Fraser Collection.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publications/bms/issue/61/download/132/section12.pdf

It will give you the data for fed rates for each bank for each month in the years 1920-1921.

Notice that Woods is wrong. Or, notice how mealy mouthed Woods is. He says, "The Federal Reserve’s activity, moreover, was hardly noticeable." What the hell does this mean?

Several of the banks in the fed reserve cut their rates. What was the effect -- I don't know but I bet it had more effect than the tax cut that occurred AFTER the depression.

But none of this really matters -- the country was in another depression in 1924 and another one in 1927. So whatever the country was doing it didn't work. We had a Republican laissez-faire approach to the economy which produced a string of depressions resulting in the Great Depression of the 30s.

This is why I asked you to compare the growth in GDP from 1921 until the Great Depression with the growth in GDP from 1933 until WWII. You need to provide real numbers not vague claims about "vigorous growth" that is all that Woods can manage to provide. Talk about pathetic.

There is very little comparison between the growth in the 20s and the growth during the Roosevelt years.

If you can't be bothered to look it that's fine.  I think its important to try to understand these things. Perhaps you don't.

I gave up on Woods' piece a third of the way through. If there is anything of substance I missed let me know.
I doubt that you find anything though.

It's just trash talk that seems to fit the current conservative mind set.

Here's a good source for you determine when tax rates went down

http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/151.html

It was 1922 -- AFTER the recovery.

Notice how Woods totally avoids giving a date for the tax cuts. 

That little piece is stinking up my computer.

Notice how bogus this looks. No facts, no sources, no dates given.

Did you skip over the footnote to
Kenneth E. Weiher, America’s Search for Economic Stability: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Since 1913 (New York: Twayne, 1992), 35.

Aside from having a Ph.D. in History, there are 13 works cited.  He has authored 9 books on history and the economy.  This article was also published in The Intercollegiate Review.  That doesn't cut it?

Item 1  Federal Reserve Rates




Item 2   Historical Tax Rates 1921



Tax Rates 1922



Item 3    Historical Annual Real GDP Rates

  I'm sorry if I missed any footnotes.

If you think a particular footnote contains important data, a reference to important data,
or something else that supports Woods' claims please bring the substance of the information to my attention.
   


Woods makes 5 claims about the 1920 Depression:


1.  The Fed did nothing noticeable
2.  Taxes were cut 
3.  Gov't spending was cut 
4.  As a result of 1-3 the economy boomed 
5.  There's a conspiracy of silence about what happened because it proves that Keynesian-style intervention doesn't work as well as laissez faire.

You asked me:
Do you agree that the actions by Harding where better than those of Hoover and Roosevelt? 

Cut spending by 50% = 18 month depression and roaring 20's
Roosevelt "stimulus" = 15 years of depression


Point 1 is false -- 12 fed banks cut their rates in the summer of 1921.
Point 2 is false, if he means to imply that tax cuts were causally related to the recovery.
The fact is that the tax cuts followed the recovery.
I don't know about point 3.
Point 4 is false -- three more depressions quickly followed including the great Depression of the 30s.

Point 5 is false. Laissez faire led to a series of depressions ending only with the onset of the Roosevelt era.


I've provide citations for my claims. I post the sources in the previous post.

If your footnote provides data to support his claims then I suggest you link to it or paste the data here.



You seem to think that that the "Roaring 20s" was a robust period of economic growth.

Here are the figures on per capita real GDP for the period:

Year   per capital gdp adjusted to 1958 dollars (See the data sheet in previous post for confirmation)

1920   $1,315
1921   $1,177
1922   $1,345
1925   $1,549
1926   $1,619
1927   $1,594
1928   $1,584
1929   $1,671
1930   $1,490
1931   $1,364   
1932   $1,154   
1933   $1,126
   
1940   $1,720



1921-1929 (The best years of growth in the 20s) annual compound growth rate of 4.48%
1921-1926 from the depth of the 1921 depression to 1926 (leaving out the depression of 1927-1928)the economy grew at an annual compound rate of 6.58%

1920-1932 the entire period of laissez faire economic policies the growth rate is an annual  -12.24%

Take your pick of numbers. Cherry pick the best years or be honest and take the entire period.

1933-1940 The annual growth rate was 6.24%


You pick the number you think is better:

1. Annual growth rates of 6.58% in the best years that results in a net drop of -12.24% in pc/gdp when you add in the bust years.

2. Or, a steady, even growth rate of 6.24% annually that yields a net 52.75% growth over the period.

Which do you choose. Stimulus policies that create steady growth or laissez faire policies that result in boom bust and net decline?

The claims listed above are the focus of my attention here.
If Woods has earned advanced degrees and written dozens of books
then he is an intelligent and educated man. I wonder why he's hiding all of this data with which, I am sure, he is totally familiar.

Sources of Data:
Point 1: Federal Reserve Rates Available here: http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publications/bms/issue/61/download/132/section12.pdf  on page 440
Point 2: Historical Tax Rates Available here: --http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/151.html
Points 4 and 5: Historical Annual Real GDP Rates Available here: http://books.google.com/books?id=6IhUAAAAMAAJ&ots=_zKdpv9GH8&dq=Historical%20Statistics%20of%20the%20United%20States&pg=PA224&ci=34,29,938,689&source=bookclip#v=onepage&q&f=false

Congress will shortly raise taxes on families on earned income (this excludes capital gains and a swarm of other income that only the wealthy benifit from) over $250k/year.

The rate will go from 35% to 39%

The right-wing is touting this as the largest tax hike in history. (Below is the first page of a google search that brought up 241,000 hits covering the last 3 days.


I doubt that it is the biggest tax hike in U.S. history. In 1992 the rate jumped from 31% to 39.6% on income over $86.5k.

Another web search brings up this chart:


Tax year   Top marginal
tax rate (%)    Top marginal
tax rate (%) on
earned income,
if different<1>    Taxable
income over--
1913   7       500,000
1914   7       500,000
1915   7       500,000
1916   15       2,000,000
1917   67       2,000,000
1918   77       1,000,000
1919   73       1,000,000
1920   73       1,000,000
1921   73       1,000,000
1922   58       200,000
1923   43.5       200,000
1924   46       500,000
1925   25       100,000
1926   25       100,000
1927   25       100,000
1928   25       100,000
1929   24       100,000
1930   25       100,000
1931   25       100,000
1932   63       1,000,000
1933   63       1,000,000
1934   63       1,000,000
1935   63       1,000,000
1936   79       5,000,000
1937   79       5,000,000
1938   79       5,000,000
1939   79       5,000,000
1940   81.1       5,000,000
1941   81       5,000,000
1942   88       200,000
1943   88       200,000
1944   94 <2>       200,000
1945   94 <2>       200,000
1946   86.45 <3>       200,000
1947   86.45 <3>       200,000
1948   82.13 <4>       400,000
1949   82.13 <4>       400,000
1950   84.36       400,000
1951   91 <5>       400,000
1952   92 <6>       400,000
1953   92 <6>       400,000
1954   91 <7>       400,000
1955   91 <7>       400,000
1956   91 <7>       400,000
1957   91 <7>       400,000
1958   91 <7>       400,000
1959   91 <7>       400,000
1960   91 <7>       400,000
1961   91 <7>       400,000
1962   91 <7>       400,000
1963   91 <7>       400,000
1964   77       400,000
1965   70       200,000
1966   70       200,000
1967   70       200,000
1968   75.25       200,000
1969   77       200,000
1970   71.75       200,000
1971   70   60   200,000
1972   70   50   200,000
1973   70   50   200,000
1974   70   50   200,000
1975   70   50   200,000
1976   70   50   200,000
1977   70   50   203,200
1978   70   50   203,200
1979   70   50   215,400
1980   70   50   215,400
1981   69.125   50   215,400
1982   50       85,600
1983   50       109,400
1984   50       162,400
1985   50       169,020
1986   50       175,250
1987   38.5       90,000
1988   28 <8>       29,750 <8>
1989   28 <8>       30,950 <8>
1990   28 <8>       32,450 <8>
1991   31       82,150
1992   31       86,500
1993   39.6       89,150
1994   39.6       250,000
1995   39.6       256,500
1996   39.6       263,750
1997   39.6       271,050
1998   39.6       278,450
1999   39.6       283,150
2000   39.6       288,350
2001   39.1       297,350
2002   38.6       307,050
2003   35       311,950

Source: http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php



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